01 Championship · Norris 412 / Piastri 387 / Verstappen 366
Norris can mathematically clinch this weekend, but only with help.
If Norris outscores Verstappen by 23 points across the sprint and the race, the title is over. The combinations that get him there are fewer than the ones that don't.
02 Red Bull · Verstappen
Interlagos is the worst possible circuit for Red Bull right now.
The RB22's tyre warm-up window has narrowed since Austin. On a track that demands a hot middle sector through traction zones, that hurts.
03 Mercedes · Antonelli
Antonelli's third home-circuit-substitute race in his rookie year.
São Paulo isn't his home, but Mercedes is leaning on him: a podium here keeps them in front of Ferrari for P3 in the constructors.
04 Weather
The storm front that broke 2023 is forecast for 16:00 Sunday.
Race start is 14:00. If the model holds, the second half of the race finishes under cloud or under red flag.
05 Constructors · P3 fight
Ferrari are 53 points behind Mercedes for P3. Three races to find them.
Hamilton's last three weekends have been his strongest of the year. The Ferrari camp is privately less optimistic than the public one.