Why this exists
Formula 1 is the most expensive measurable sport on earth, and the way most people talk about it has nothing to do with measurement. We started Five Reds because we wanted a publication that took the data seriously and the storytelling equally seriously.
The same predictive engine that powers our pre-race posts also grades the analysis we publish afterwards. If we were wrong, we say so. If we were right by accident, we say that too.
What we publish
- Predictions — every race weekend, before the cars run, with probabilities not punditry.
- Analysis — long-form features, opinion, news and post-race reviews. Read about our editorial mix on the analysis hub.
- Ratings — driver and team Elo, derived from teammate head-to-heads back to 2003.
- A Sunday newsletter — one email a week, the chart that explains the race. Subscribe.
How it's made
The engine is a hierarchical Bayesian model written in NumPyro, fed by FastF1 timing and the Ergast historical archive. We refit weekly. We backtest every release. The full method is on the methodology page.
Get in touch
If you have something you'd like us to look at, a chart you'd like us to make, or a story you think we're missing, pitch us. If you'd like to write for Five Reds, the same form works.