Antonelli has won three straight. The championship gap is already 20 points

Kimi Antonelli has won the last three Grands Prix. The gap to his teammate George Russell is 20 points. The gap to third-placed Leclerc is 41 points.

Those numbers describe a dominant stretch, but the form data makes them sharper. Through the first four rounds of 2026, Antonelli has qualified on pole in China, Japan, and Miami. In Australia he started second and finished second. Since round two he has not finished off the podium. Russell, driving the same car, has finished 4th, 4th in Japan and Miami after topping qualifying in Australia and China. The intra-team split is the clearest single fact of this young season: both Mercedes drivers are fast, but only one is converting.

Miami itself gave the clearest read yet on where the rest of the field stands. Norris recovered to second after a difficult run of results, including a 20th-place finish in China, and Piastri completed a McLaren 2-3. That is McLaren’s best combined result of 2026, and it came from a Norris who qualified 4th and a Piastri who qualified 7th. Both moved forward on race day. The circuit rewarded overtaking, and McLaren’s race-pace advantage over their single-lap pace showed itself in the results.

Ferrari had the opposite afternoon. Leclerc qualified 3rd in Miami and finished 8th. Hamilton started 6th and finished 6th. A team sitting second in the constructors’ standings on 110 points left Florida having added only a handful. The gap between Mercedes (180 points) and Ferrari in the constructors’ fight is now 70 points. Six of those constructor points came from Norris alone.

The driver story heading into Montreal is Verstappen’s continued recovery. He qualified 2nd in Miami after starting 8th in China and 11th in Japan. He finished 5th in Florida. The Red Bull was clearly faster around the Miami circuit than it has been on the tighter tracks earlier in the season. Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, with its long straights and heavy braking zones, has historically rewarded cars with strong mechanical grip and confidence under late braking. Whether that reads as Red Bull territory or Mercedes territory in 2026 is the most interesting open question before Sunday.

The subplot is McLaren’s momentum. Norris has now scored a podium in his last two races after a run of 20th, DNF, and 5th across rounds two and three. The Miami result, a 2nd place from 4th on the grid, is the first time in 2026 he has matched his qualifying position with a meaningful race gain. Piastri, who also finished on the podium for the second consecutive race, has a combined 43 points through four rounds despite back-to-back non-scores in Australia and China.

One number ties the last race to the next: Antonelli’s three consecutive pole positions. Circuit Gilles Villeneuve rewards clean lap time, particularly in the final sector. Antonelli’s qualifying average across the last four rounds sits at P1 for three of them. Whether the Montreal street circuit breaks the pattern or extends it is the first thing to watch on Saturday.

The Canadian Grand Prix takes place on 24 May 2026 at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal.