The charts.

Running points difference between the top two contenders. Negative means challenger; positive means leader extending. Updated weekly.

Norris vs his teammate, qualifying delta in seconds. Sample of the per-driver qualifying view rolled up across the season.

Teammate head-to-head Elo, the rating system that drives our driver ability estimate. 2003 onwards.

Pace ladders, calibration plots and per-race Monte-Carlo distributions live inside the relevant pages.

• Predictions → per-race winner / podium / pole probabilities
• Ratings → driver Elo trajectories
• Pace → career absolute pace
• Team ratings → constructor Elo
• Quali vs race → grid-to-finish deltas